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Dependencies in Event Trees analyzed by Petri Nets

07.04.2010   11:00-12:00

This presentation discusses the application of non-marked Petri Nets for modelling and analysis of event trees where the pivotal (or branching) events are modelled by dependent fault trees. These dependencies may, for example, be caused by shared utilities, common components or general common cause failures (CCF) that are modelled by, for example, beta-factor models. The dependencies pose a problem that cannot be solved properly by using standard modelling techniques with independent fault trees.Using standard independent fault trees can in this case cause major errors in the calculation of the probabilities of the end-states of the event tree. Proposed new method shows how to model the whole Event Tree as a non-marked Petri Net and how to use a concept of P-invariants, which are the structural property of every Petri Net, to obtain an exact and correct probability function for every End State of the Event Tree with dependencies. In the presentation, the new method is applied to a real example of an Event Tree Analysis of the Strahov highway tunnel in Prague, Czech Republic, which includes two types of dependencies (shared PLC and CCF).

Místo konání
KN:E-14
Kontaktní osoba
Ondřej Nývlt